Wednesday, January 21, 2004
Okay, since everyone else is issuing after-caucus analysis, here's mine:
posted by lazarus |
Dean: Likely done. He could come back, but the speech was a defining moment. Yeah, it's unfair. That's life. He's developing a reputation, earned or not, and played right into it.
Edwards: Nice guy. Works well with others. Why did it take him until the last few days to catch on? Did he catch on? Did he just absorb a lot of voters who were Dean voters who maybe changed their minds? Needs a strong showing in NH (not a win, but at least be on the radar) to take him into SC.
Kerry: Moribund until a few days ago. Lots of money, great organisation. So what's the problem? You have 4 things in a campaign: money, organisation, message, and candidate. The first three are covered, and didn't change a bit. Neither did the 4th. The problem with the Kerry campaign is Kerry, I think, and it's not going to get any better. Mild bump, not goign to help much long term unless he can follow up with a strong showing in NH.
Clark: Just ride out the next couple of days. Polls are going to be wacky, then they'll stabilise and you'll see where you are. Just stay on message, it's all about leadership.
It's really a strong 4 person race right now, but this is going to be a critical vote for Dean and Kerry. If either of them finishes way out of the running, it could be a disaster.
That's my first attempt at analysis, for what it's worth.