Ungodly Politics

"Announcing your plans is a good way to hear god laugh." - Al Swearingen

Sunday, May 16, 2004  

Guardian Unlimited Politics | Comment | A fatal attraction?
Worrying times for the Labour Party.

For the first time, it has become clear just how closely Blair's fate is now intertwined with that of the man his party loves to hate, George Bush. It is not only Iraqi insurgents who are destabilising Blair's domestic popularity, but also the systematic sadism of some American soldiers, which has cost both Bush - and, by association, Blair - the moral high ground. He has become a victim of friendly fire.

MPs expecting a drubbing at the ballot box next month in the local, European and London elections fear for their own futures. Even Ken Livingstone, hardly a Blairite, has seen his poll lead halved after rejoining Labour: MPs have concluded that, as the veteran Labour backbencher Clive Soley puts it, right now 'anyone under the Labour banner is a bit vulnerable'.

This coincides with my own thinking. I have long thought that Tony Blair's will be brought down by his closeness with George W. Bush. I have to say that I thought if George looked like he was going to survive, Tony would too. However, it would see that the Tories are making hay with Tony Blair's troubles...

Tuesday's report in the Guardian - that Blair would go if he was not wanted - coincided disastrously with a Times poll giving the Tories a six-point lead. This was not enough to get Michael Howard into Downing Street, but enough to wipe out more than 100 Labour MPs. Even Education Secretary Charles Clarke would be vulnerable on that kind of swing.

Panic ensued in the tea rooms, with what one whip called 'back-of-a-fag-packet' calculations on who would lose their job. By Wednesday, the mood was nearing hysteria.

Howard drew blood at Prime Minister's Questions by demanding compensation for workers who had lost their pension savings: as he knows, many Labour backbenchers have been pleading for months for Blair to help.

My guess is that the Labour Party will change their leader sooner, rather than later, certainly before the next UK General Election and probably just before the US General Election. Next months local and European elections look like they will be bad for the Party and worse for Tony Blair. Labour Party Conference is about a month before the US General Election and that will most probably be when Gordon Brown becomes the next leader of the Labour Party. I have a feeling that this will have a detrimental effect on George W. Bush's election chances.

posted by RogueTrooper | 11:39 | |
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